Week 9 NFL Picks

POST UPDATED WITH RESULTS

It never gets old: being a Cowboys fan is a difficult and challenging task. If it’s not a heart-braking last minute INT, a poor coaching decision or a dumb penalty it will be a monstrous, career-defining performance by a rival player that will make big D  get another big L. Congratulations to all Lions fans, it was a heck of a performance by your QB and number 81, I think Megatron needs to be tested not for drugs, but just to check if he is human. Unbelievable.As the Cowboys should do, let’s just move on to Week 9.

Last week was quite good (8-5) and this week I believe we’ll keep this up. I read in a Deadspin article last week how the most recognized stats models that predict NFL scores are doing terrible this year. That makes me feel way better for 2 reasons: 1) I’m doing better than them. 2) I’m not the only one underperforming. To be honest I’m really close to the “easier” goal which is being constantly above 52%. I would like to step my game up and jump to 60%, but as a Cowboys fan I know I need to do things one week at a time.

These are this week’s spread lines for my stats model, Yahoo!, and ESPN.



Week 9 picks:

I get really uncomfortable every time the model tends to chose too many favorites or too many underdogs, I like to spread the love around! This week the model is leaning for 11 favorites and just 2 underdogs, it’s begging me to veto one of those 11 favorites. 2 options come to mind, the Falcons and the Buccaneers. I just keep forgetting that the Falcons are no longer a good team. They don’t have their top 2 WR and despite Matt Ryan’s ability to keep them in games it has not worked for them this season. So I’m going to pass. Why am I thinking about the Buccaneers? Well after last week’s TNF humiliating home loss I believe they have a chip on their shoulders. I’m definitely not expecting them to win in Seattle, but maybe they can keep it close. I’m just asking a rookie QB, a coach that no one likes, a backup RB to not lose by 17 in one of NFL’s toughest stadiums. Ok no… NO VETOS this week! 9 teams are favorite by less than a TD, so it’s not as if I need too many blowouts to cover the spreads.



Bad results for week 9.


Week 8 NFL Picks

POST EDITED WITH RESULTS

Two weeks in a row going below .500. That only means that this week has to be a great one! We’re still above .500 for the season and I’m anxiously waiting for that breakout week which happens every season. It’s the first week of the season with only 13 games. This time I will be using a veto.

As usual I’m using Yahoo and ESPN to compare the model and it’s spread. These are the lines:


Week 8 picks:

I’m feeling good about the model this week, I feel that it’s coming together and that BYE weeks will start being crucial. As of this week, BYE weeks seem to be affecting teams. This week’s veto comes in a Divisional game. Philadelphia has lost 9 straight home games, the Giants come from their first win of the season this past Sunday Night. I can’t say if Philly will outright win this matchup, but I can’t see them winning by a big margin (-6). I know Mike Vick is supposed to play, but what if he’s not 100%? What if he doesn’t play? Nick Foles is out with a concussion, not that Foles is good or anything, and Matt Barkley? The man played 9 minutes and threw 3 INTs. Thank God I had the Cowboys defense last week on my fantasy team.


UPDATED: Great week overall! going 8-5 with the benefit of a correct Veto. Few things make me happier than a correct veto. Even more this time when I was right on target with Vick’s fragility and the Eagles inability to win at home. I have changed the way I post the results because of reader’s suggestions. I really appreciate all the emails and comments that I have been receiving. 



Week 7 NFL Picks

After a bad week 6 I’m hoping for a big rebound, already started well with Thursday’s game. No vetos for me this week, it’ll be all about the numbers. I’m expecting a great Football Sunday with great day games, but specially with that Broncos at Colts matchup, Peyton is going back to Indi, can’t wait!

As usual I’m using Yahoo and ESPN to compare the model and it’s spread. These are the lines:

The picks: UPDATED with results. Things were looking really well until the late games on Sunday. Killed me.

I’m barely hanging above that 52%. I will take a harder look at those vetos and LMV for next week.

Week 7 summary:


Week 5 NFL Picks

As usual I use both ESPN and Yahoo lines to play. The ESPN line doesn’t adjust, Yahoo’s does.



This week’s picks include a Veto and a LMV. Calvin Johnson is not playing for Detroit and I expected the Cowboys to upset Peyton Manning and the Broncos at AT&T Stadium:

UPDATE: Both vetos were correct! Unfortunately for a Cowboys fan like myself it is just a terrible feeling.


Week 5 summary results: