Survivor/Eliminator Picks

Teams used so far:
IND, ATL, DEN, KC, STL, SEA, SD, SF, DAL

Week 10:

WHEWWWW! Everyone of you who picked the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Vikings (very popular choice) felt how a Cowboys fan feels every week. I’m glad a bunch of you had the opportunity to live it. As for this week’s pick I had 2 clear options designed for this week, unfortunately as you know now, Rodgers broke his collarbone and the Packers are no longer trust-worthy. That leaves us with whoever is playing the Jaguars… again! Welcome on board Jake Locker and the rest of the Tennessee Titans you have been chosen to keep us going one more week. In their defense, the Titans are a good team and the model has them winning by the biggest margin this week. It would not surprise me at all if the other 13 contestants in my Survivor league choose the Titans.

Jacksonville 7 – 31 Titans

The pick: Tennessee Titans

Week 9:

Terrible news: the Jaguars are on a bye!!! I’ll have to pick someone that’s not a Jaguars opponent for just the second time in 5 weeks. The good news is that I expect the Cowboys to have a similar game as the one they played at home vs. the Rams, but this week vs. the Vikings. Dallas is the second highest favorite in my model and the third highest in Yahoo! and ESPN, so it’s a very safe bet. I feel confident using the Cowboys at home against almost any team, using them against a bad team with Freeman/Cassel/Ponder/Webb combo in their QB position is a no brainer.

Minnesota 22 – 36  Dallas

The pick: Dallas Cowboys
UPDATE: Tony “Clutch” Romo: thank you! Survived one more week.

Week 8:

Have I mentioned how much I love the Jaguars? They’ll be spreading their horrendousness all the way to London this week. Despite me giving the Jaguars a home field advantage which is worth almost 2.5 points, the Jaguars are still the biggest underdogs this week against the 49ers. 

San Francisco 31 – 11 Jacksonville

The pick: San Francisco 49ers
UPDATE: Not much to say when a powerful team faces the worst team in the National Football League. 

San Francisco 42 – 10 Jacksonville

 

Week 7:

Thank God for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I’ve looked at their schedule and if I could choose each of their opponents I would, they have a solid chance of going 0-16 for the season. Unfortunately I can’t bet against them every week. The good news is that I haven’t used the Chargers and even though they play on the road I like them. The model agrees with me projecting the second biggest blowout of the week.

San Diego 31 – 15 Jacksonville.

The pick: San Diego Chargers

UPDATE: Correct pick. Phillip Rivers is having a solid year. It’s too bad the Chargers are in the same division as the Broncos and the Chiefs.

Week 6:

For the first time this season I’ll pick only the 4th biggest blowout, but I got my reasons. The first one 1st one I can’t use (Jacksonville 14 – 50 Denver). The second one is a Thursday night game, I don’t trust anything that happens in those games (NYG 20 – 40 Chicago). The 3rd one suggests picking Kansas which I’ve already done. So we’re left off with Seattle beating the Titans at home. I’m really happy I haven’t chosen Seattle yet. This week’s the one.

Tennessee 16 – 25 Seattle

The pick: Seattle Seahawks

UPDATE: Correct pick. The Titans made it a close game though. We’re still alive!

Week 5:

Tricky pick this week suggested by the model. It picks a bad team to beat a terrible team. It always makes me nervous to go for this sort of picks. The other blowouts suggested come from Denver and Carolina. We’ve used Denver (but don’t trust them against the Cowboys anyways), and I definitely don’t trust the Panthers. I’m sticking with the Rams, the predicted score is:

Jacksonville 16 – 27 St. Louis

The pick: St. Louis 

UPDATE: Correct Pick. It was only close when the game started. Soon the Rams played well enough. We used a bad team and survived which is amazing!

Week 4:

The model suggests that I pick Kansas City against the younger Manning, which I dislike by the way. My other 2 projected blowouts come from Indianapolis and Denver, but I’ve already used both. The model predicts:

New York Giants 10 – 36 Kansas City

The pick: Kansas City

UPDATE: Correct pick. It wasn’t as easy as we could’ve thought, but things turned out for the best in the 4th quarter. We’re still alive.


Week 3:

Good news, the model is ready and we can start using it to make this picks as safe as possible. This week I have 2 solid options, the model is predicting this scores:

Jacksonville 0 – 23 Seattle
Oakland 20 – 34 Denver

On the one hand using Seattle seems such an easy choice, but I’m in the other hand I can probably use Seattle playing at home in another week and they’ll still be heavy favorites. I’m going to rely on Peyton Manning’s magnificent start of the season.

The pick: Denver Broncos

UPDATE: Correct pick. Easy win in this Monday Night for the older Manning.

Week 2:

I have always been a big Matt Ryan fan, specially at home versus a team that’s not good. I believe it’s a no brainer. I don’t see the Falcons starting the season 0-2.

The pick: Atlanta Falcons

UPDATE: Correct pick. Matty Ice at home never fails.

Week 1:

There are not many “obvious”  options to start the season. After weighing between the Patriots against the Bills in Buffalo and the Colts against the Raiders in Indianapolis, I will settle with Indianapolis. The main reason is the home field advantage. I personally don’t like choosing games between divisional teams, specially if the team I’m leaning on is the away team.

The pick: Indianapolis Colts

UPDATE: Correct pick, But we came close to loosing.

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